[...]AI can't force you to lose without a failstate without wiping you out.[...]
Actually, Chris is the one that says he hated games with fail states without being wiped out.
I don't like games without fail states. And currently the game doesn't have a fail state, and doesn't have a convincing enough narrative to suggest that it is reasonable to not have one. (Disease/Crime/Whatever rings don't cause death, you can still come back and win, it is just tedious to rebuild sometimes. The only real fail state is if you are militarily dominated, which hasn't happened to anyone due to the AI being lobotomized by accident during the beta versions. That has changed now, but we'll see). Effectively it makes the game a sandbox, and I get bored in sandboxes relatively quickly, without something to challenge. To summarize, I agree with most of your conclusion, but differ in the specifics.
My other complaints were about how the mechanics flow and how they lack face validity (while still being a completely functional system).
If certain races are as predisposed towards certain kinds of victory, it lacks replay value. "Oh, its the Acutians again. No thanks, don't want your Thermonuclear Microwaves" and "Gotta build this bugspray tower; keep the Thoraxians at bay, ho hum."
Its fine for races to have biases and dispositions that influence their moves in the same way, but AIs that repeat the same patterns are
exploitable.
If you are arguing with a devil's advocate's position, then sure to an extent. On the other hand, predisposed characters IS what gives events their flavors. It would be like Star Trek, but without knowing if the Klingons will be Klingons or money grubbing Ferengi. Or playing Civ and Ghandi not threatening you with nuclear annihilation. Or Star Control 2 without the Ur-Quan trying to kill you every day. By creating limitations in behaviors (even soft ones), we make things interesting. One of the biggest problems with RTS is that they can become too generic, wherein every race is the same. SC & WC became so popular because of the character in their races. Because of the enforced and distinct behaviors.