Based on what? Indie game development seems to only be growing more and more each day because platforms like Steam have made publishing and distribution easier than it's ever been.
The biggest threat to the indie developer is market saturation, not the big bad AAA teams controlling all the tools.
First of all, never said anything about "big bad" controlling whatever. I don't think that AAA or large companies are enemies of whatever but each other actually.
Anyway, Steam is only a part of what made the indy game scene somewhat bigger. A large part which you seem to forget is done by the tools that dev now have at their disposal to code. Based on inside experience, and Arcen's, and others around. Sorry, but... coding changed in the last 30 years, and also because of (way larger) computing capability.
30 years ago, you had to code everything and could only make limited stuff, due to hardware limitations, true, but also due to coding techniques and limited langages. By limited I mean what 30 minutes of coding did in those day, you can now do way faster, depending on the tools you're using. It will, of course, take a toll on performance, but most games don't need to use more than 5% of a computer's ressources (if efficiently used). Typically using a tool like Unity to code WILL take a large amount of coding out of your hands, enabling a rather small team to make a complete game with rather high graphic quality, rather good sound, controls, portability, and rather good stability at the cost of some (significant) loss of performance compared to an home-grown engine. Do you understand how much work getting all those to work represent ? It's not perfect though, but it's getting "better", or rather easier and easier, as time go by, to get a decent game made. Ultimately you'll be able to create a game with next to no coding done, only graphics and a few rules, and a good story. It's already doable, actually, for "simpler" game concepts.
And, yeah, since you don't seem to know, only AAA game dev or companies dedicated for this have the manpower to build up an engine from the ground, and they often do this for performance issues. So since creating an engine costs (very much a lot of) money, they're selling it.
Yes, it means that larger game studios and some other dedicated tool makers are already controlling most tools. Unreal engine & Unity would be some of the better known currently. Most of the indy dev go for concept and not performance and use the tools sold on the market to get the game on live.
Want some proof about how many games are based on technology by others ?
http://unity3d.com/showcase/galleryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Unreal_Engine_gameshttps://www.unrealengine.com/showcaseHell, even CCP, which has even online, uses those. They certainly have the money to make an engine from the ground up.
https://www.unrealengine.com/showcase/eve-valkyrie-made-for-virtual-realityDo you know what Bethesda uses ?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Havok_%28software%29http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_games_using_HavokThe whole market is getting saturated with these kind of tools, which most dev (from indy to large studio) use, and which made the current "explosion" of gaming possible.
And, another thing, market saturation... as long as there are tools powerful enough to enable people to create games with moderate to low workload (even at the cost of performance, since computers are getting even more efficient still), cheap distribution (like steam and the like), it will attract an endless stream of "artists" to create games. Much like the art, music and video (youtube to cinema) currently is saturated. A large amount of those people work for low wages because there is so much competition... and some of the competition actually crosses the line to work for free. Video gaming and app dev currently moves closer and closer to this model.
So, no, contrary to what seems to be the dominant opinion on this and other forums around, Bethesda people are very far from being dumb. Being the first to have paid mods, and getting the first abuses linked to getting this system to work is kind of dangerous, but the current state of AAA gaming development teams is grow bigger or become indy. By selling mods, they create a market which depends on them, and whose quality, publicity and so on does not depend on them. From Bethesda's point of view, paid modders will generate free publicity, free work to make their "base" game more successful. Some people will buy their game because they want the mods. Some may be even large enough to be sold as standalone "expansions" of the base game.
And, last point... It already happened. Where do you think that Valve comes from ? Ever heard of CS & DoTA ?
