The Psychology of Randomness

[x4000]

An excellent read: http://blogs.msdn.com/b/shawnhar/archive/2009/12/17/the-psychology-of-randomness.aspx

Basically, the entire way that most people think of randomness is wrong.  Think that the number sequence 3 6 7 7 7 5 4 3 6 7 7 isn't random?  Then you should read this article.

[eRe4s3r]

Randomness is fun - i love people who tell me "but i have got a 50/50 chance - no in reality with only 1 try and no base for an estimated prediction you have a infinite chaotic chance of getting it right (or wrong) - meaning that in 60000 tries you can always chose the wrong thing - even if you theres only 2 things to choose from (1 right and 1 wrong, that is).

Because your chances are never high or low - they are always the same no matter how often you try.

My fathers doctorate theory was on "Chaos Theory and how it applies to random and linear systems" and ever since i only read the tiniest snippets i never again took part in a lottery or game of chance.

When i see a 51% chance of hit - i would rate that as an terrible tactical situation and retreat. Others would (wrongly) assume that a 1% higher chance means you will actually win that battle.

I think - the biggest mistake people do with games of chances is not understanding that randomness is chaotic and without knowing all variables a "chance" is about as useful as guessing.

In fact - even 6 - 6 - 6 - 6 - 6 - 7 - 6 can be random (i've seen it happen in DnD many times)

[x4000]

Oh yeah, for sure.  All good points.  And yep, even a 70% hit chance makes me pretty nervous, for the reasons you mention.

[RCIX]

I think of randomness as a property of random number generators and not sets of numbers themselves (all number sequences are random, but not all random number generators output numbers randomly)which also helps

[x4000]

True, it is pseudorandom in general, so you have that added on top of the normal misunderstanding that people have of randomness.  I really like the mersenne twister algorithm, personally, and it's what is used in Tidalis and AI War.

[dumpsterKEEPER]

Obligatory: http://xkcd.com/221/

[x4000]

Man I love xkcd.