Let's see, I'm playing on normal caps, 7/7 Support Corp and Sledgehammer.
Hybrids 4/10
Advanced Hybrids
Human Colony Rebellions 4/10, one of those declared behind a core world; that was 100 AIP
Spire Civilian Leaders, 3 are freed, so -2 AIP/hour
Human Marauders and Resistance Fighters both 4/10
Fallen Spire 4/10, one city in the chokepoint
Spirecraft, Botnet Medium, no Botnet
Tech level is at 3
I'm... 12 or so hours in; it's after the 3rd CPA of the game. The CPA that just had carriers sit outside my choke, adding to the threat
Recently, I added a Radar Jammer II and Planetary Armor Inhibitor. Not sure how much those boost defense value to the AI
Bonus ships that I know are in the threatball include Stealth Battleships, Zenith Beam Frigates, Neinzul Railpods, Armor Ships, Space Tanks, and I think some Decloakers. And there is a boatload of Stealth Battleships in that threatball. Plus Hybrids. Lots and lots of hybrids. Hybrid drones don't count for threat, do they?
Also, did you take Military Command Station III into account? Because that's there too
I'm kind of more suprised that the AI hasn't been sending the threatball in with the FS exos. I've been seeing Spire Corvette Vs leading those things. High AIP is an... interesting game. Counterattack posts throw mixed 1000 ship waves at me.