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Well, it took a 5000 ship fleet to finally convince them to invade, but when they did they swamped my defenses. If I hadn't had to sacrifice all my ships to convince them to come in I might have held them off though. Still, there's no reason for the AI to wait once they have 2-3k ships about to come through (or perhaps 2-3x times the ships the defenders have in system?).
I wonder why the AI has trouble initiating attacks sometimes. I've seen it quite frequently where AI ships will gather on a portal preparing for an attack and just never attack. I imagine the 'missing threat' from CPA's is related to the same thing.