AI ships in CPAs come from planets that have a lot of AI ships on them of the correct level, so you can anticipate directionality somewhat based on that -- the most AI ships tend to build up around your borders. Doddler gives a great rundown on that, his analysis is spot on. Other notes of mine:
To make it more dispersed:
- If you neuter those planets (killing the guard posts), there will be significantly fewer ships at any given point, making the attack far more dispersed.
- If you have taken a lot of planets that border a lot of enemy planets of the correct mark level, then they will all have moderate reinforcements at them, most likely, also making the attack more dispersed.
To make it more concentrated:
- If you put very few AI planets on alert (as with vines or snake maps, for instance), then AI ships will tend to pile up in very high numbers on the few planets that are on alert. Assuming that one or two of them are the right mark level of planet, you can guess that most of the attack would come from those few locations. Of course, if you carry this too far and there are not enough ships on those alert planets, then you'll flip over into making this more dispersed again because more ships will join the CPA from wherever else out in the galaxy.
In other words, the CPA is weighted towards the largest planets that have ships of the appropriate mark level. The AIP in that screenshot really was not enough to make it truly brutal by design, I think the part that is the problem is that multiplayer multiplier. In the next version when that change is in, it should be more like 2307 ships there.
What I meant about drawing the AI into bottlenecks is using natural bottlenecks that exist on the map. If you build outward to that you tend to have very few wormholes leading to AI planets from your core areas, as many players tend to do, then often there are a few natural choke points that you can identify. Unfortunately, with a grid or hub type of map as in that screenshot, often those sorts of choke points don't exist. In that case, going nuts with the turrets, and packing extra force fields to create bottlenecks by preventing ships from using specific wormholes or getting to specific command stations, can serve the same function.
When you don't know what direction they will be coming from, as with your screenshot there, that's a tricky on. If it were me, I probably would have done the following, but this is just me:
- Bring all mobile forces back to the two home planets (the rebel colony can fend for itself for two hours, after all).
- Unlock Spider Turrets for sure, and build them off by themselves on both home planets, and possibly also on some of the other random player-controlled planets. This is better done far in advance, and helps in defending in general. But basically the idea here is to whittle down the enemy forces by knocking out engines before they reach your home planets. But if they don't go through other planets of yours, then that is a waste, so you're kind of betting there.
- If there is enough knowledge, unlock Laser Turret 1 or Laser Turret 2, or MLRS Turret 2, and build those like crazy around all wormholes on both home planets.
- Otherwise, just build whatever turrets you have around the wormholes on both planets, along with at least 15-25 tractor beams at each wormhole if possible.
- Put double forcefields or more up around the home planet command stations, and turrets all around them.
- Put minefields on the most likely paths to the home planet command stations.
- Put all my ships in FRD mode, and have some engineers hanging out to repair stuff if it needs be.
Then, if the AI attacked me on whatever other planets, I'd only make small motions to try to slow them down, token resistance. If they were coming in fairly dispersely, I might send out my fleet to pick them off, but if I started getting outnumbered I'd retreat back home. I'd have a scout on any enemy planets adjacent to my home, and I'd be watching the numbers of enemy ships on those planets very intently to make sure that nothing was coming at me from behind.
Other things that might help, factoring into one plan or another:
- Starships to boost munitions.
- Lightning Warheads to take out large groups of ships right as they are gathering on the other side of a wormhole to come to one of my planets (again, having scouts sitting there on those planets) -- one lightning warhead, if you're lucky, can take out 500-700 ships, depending. They can be an incredible boom.
- EMP Warheads could be used if too many AI ships are all on the far side of a single wormhole from your fleet. Send the EMP through, and then immediately your fleet, and you've got 30 seconds to butcher them while they are paralyzed. Pair that with first sending through a lightning warhead, and you're suddenly on very even turf.
- As noted in the past, you can use forcefields over wormholes to slow them down. Works great when paired with turrets around the forcefield, or with spider turrets elsewhere on the same planet. If you have enough warning as to where the enemy is coming in (if it is through a chain of your planets), that gives you time to get forcefields in place since they are mobile.
- Also as noted in the past, as a measure of last resort you can resort to a nuke or two to clean off a planet. If it's your planet that is going to cost you resource income as well as AIP (since the harvester spots are destroyed), so that's a really tough call to make; but it's better than outright losing.