Author Topic: Is this supposed to happen?  (Read 3787 times)

Offline Entrenched Homperson

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Is this supposed to happen?
« on: January 21, 2011, 11:42:12 am »
Was playing around with lots last night. It was late and very cool, I was expecting to stay up for hours... except I got creamed within the first half hour each game. IDK what it was. I thought it might be the minor AI factions I had enabled but I removed them and the second time was the same result. All games where on Low ship cap for reference.

So I have a fleet of 16 Ships and maybe 30 turrets. I build my usual Forcefield/Mines/Turrets stuffs on the planet, preparing to entrench as I have only 1 exit. (Lucky me) I had Stealth Battleships (A new favorite starting unit of mine) and maybe 3 bombers and a frigate. I had low resources at this point so I assumed if I kept my fleet low and focused on turrets this might deter the AI from stepping on me to soon.

Not so.

Both games the first time I saw the AI was in FORCE. First game was 300 Fighters and 300 Frigates about, second game was 400 Bombers and 200 Interceptors. They focus killed my Command Center and I lost.

I had no special options enabled or anything. Anyone know what the deal is here?

Thanks,
Entrenched Homeperson
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Offline x4000

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Re: Is this supposed to happen?
« Reply #1 on: January 21, 2011, 11:44:47 am »
Were you still playing on difficulty 9?
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Offline BobTheJanitor

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Re: Is this supposed to happen?
« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2011, 11:47:41 am »
Were these actual waves that you had warnings pop up for? If so it would depend on your difficulty and what ship cap you were playing on. The first waves start coming in pretty quick after the game starts. If you're getting creamed by waves right off the bat you can always make your first priority building a suicide force to go kill nearby warp gates, especially if you're on a dead end system that has only one to deal with.

If these aren't waves, and are just the AI suddenly showing up in force, I have no idea what that could be.

Offline Entrenched Homperson

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Re: Is this supposed to happen?
« Reply #3 on: January 21, 2011, 11:57:21 am »
Dif 8, which hitherto hasnt been sending these. Is it changed is Lots? And yes I'm getting wave warnings.
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Offline x4000

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Re: Is this supposed to happen?
« Reply #4 on: January 21, 2011, 11:59:11 am »
Ok.  Well, in that case, it's probably just the AI type you're on.  Turtles send no waves.  Raider-type ones send waves that are something like 2.5x the normal.  Etc.  So this sort of thing can vary a ton.

It's possible you're up against a mad bomber or one of the raider types, anyway.
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Offline Shrugging Khan

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Re: Is this supposed to happen?
« Reply #5 on: January 24, 2011, 07:37:25 am »
Turn on the AI type revealer, then run a dozen games in succession and report back for !!SCIENTIFIC!! analysis!
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Offline TechSY730

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Re: Is this supposed to happen?
« Reply #6 on: January 24, 2011, 08:03:24 am »
Turn on the AI type revealer, then run a dozen games in succession and report back for !!SCIENTIFIC!! analysis!

If you think there is something funny going on with a RNG, this is how you approach it. Finally, someone else who points this out! :)

Offline BobTheJanitor

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Re: Is this supposed to happen?
« Reply #7 on: January 24, 2011, 10:09:13 am »
If you think there is something funny going on with a RNG, this is how you approach it. Finally, someone else who points this out! :)
What?! Get off the internet! If you think there is something wrong with RNG the way to approach it is with two, or at best one single anecdotal incident. And the louder you yell about it, the more correct you are. Clearly you haven't spent enough time on the WoW forums.   ;)

Offline Suzera

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Re: Is this supposed to happen?
« Reply #8 on: January 24, 2011, 11:22:40 am »
It might also be that low ship cap waves recently got doubled from fixing that scaling.

Offline x4000

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Re: Is this supposed to happen?
« Reply #9 on: January 24, 2011, 11:30:22 am »
Turn on the AI type revealer, then run a dozen games in succession and report back for !!SCIENTIFIC!! analysis!

If you think there is something funny going on with a RNG, this is how you approach it. Finally, someone else who points this out! :)

Even if you were to run 100 simulations, that wouldn't prove anything, though.  "Random" != "equally distributed," so I have no idea what you'd even be looking for.  It would be perfectly valid for all 100 simulations to -- completely by chance -- give you the same outlier result.  If someone else ran 100 simulations, their results by definition would not resemble yours in any way, shape, or form.

Put another way: if you have a six-sided die and you roll 6 on it 10 or even 100 times in a row, that does not mean it's a loaded die or the player is cheating.  That literally can happen from chance, virtually or in real life.
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Offline Shrugging Khan

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Re: Is this supposed to happen?
« Reply #10 on: January 24, 2011, 11:31:17 am »
That's not how probability works! Liar!  :-X
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Offline Entrenched Homperson

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Re: Is this supposed to happen?
« Reply #11 on: January 24, 2011, 11:47:07 am »
Yes it does! I've flipped a coin heads 50 times in a row! So there!

Also,

I was playing 2 Assassin.
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Offline Shelly

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Re: Is this supposed to happen?
« Reply #12 on: January 24, 2011, 12:03:48 pm »
Turn on the AI type revealer, then run a dozen games in succession and report back for !!SCIENTIFIC!! analysis!

If you think there is something funny going on with a RNG, this is how you approach it. Finally, someone else who points this out! :)

Even if you were to run 100 simulations, that wouldn't prove anything, though.  "Random" != "equally distributed," so I have no idea what you'd even be looking for.  It would be perfectly valid for all 100 simulations to -- completely by chance -- give you the same outlier result.  If someone else ran 100 simulations, their results by definition would not resemble yours in any way, shape, or form.

Put another way: if you have a six-sided die and you roll 6 on it 10 or even 100 times in a row, that does not mean it's a loaded die or the player is cheating.  That literally can happen from chance, virtually or in real life.

From statistical point of view that would be a loaded die, whit a small margin for error.

Offline TechSY730

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Re: Is this supposed to happen?
« Reply #13 on: January 24, 2011, 12:05:00 pm »
Turn on the AI type revealer, then run a dozen games in succession and report back for !!SCIENTIFIC!! analysis!

If you think there is something funny going on with a RNG, this is how you approach it. Finally, someone else who points this out! :)

Even if you were to run 100 simulations, that wouldn't prove anything, though.  "Random" != "equally distributed," so I have no idea what you'd even be looking for.  It would be perfectly valid for all 100 simulations to -- completely by chance -- give you the same outlier result.  If someone else ran 100 simulations, their results by definition would not resemble yours in any way, shape, or form.

Put another way: if you have a six-sided die and you roll 6 on it 10 or even 100 times in a row, that does not mean it's a loaded die or the player is cheating.  That literally can happen from chance, virtually or in real life.

True, but eventually the chance of it being a loaded die or a flawed RNG will be higher than seeing that specific pattern. Certain factors in "flawed randomness", like a loaded die or a flawed RNG typically give certain recignizable patterns, an if that pattern keeps going for a long time, the chance of that pattern being a sign of a problem begins to exceed the chance if that pattern being a freak accident. Can you ever be sure by observing trials alone, of course not. But it is valid for trails with a consisten pattern to raise one's suspicion.

Offline x4000

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Re: Is this supposed to happen?
« Reply #14 on: January 24, 2011, 12:36:14 pm »
From a statistical standpoint, 100 rolls could easily mean that it's just a too-small sample.  If you roll that die 2 billion times and it's always 6, you have a problem.  And really, saying "6 comes up 100 times in a row" is probably too extreme of an example.  Let's say that if 6 comes up 50 times out of 100, that doesn't mean it's statistically significant when you're talking about random.  Especially multi-factor random.

As in: let's say you have a single die that you roll for ten different purposes.  Once for moving, once for what kind of card you get when you open a chest, and so on.  Let's say that you happen to get a 6 each time you roll for movement for a while, but the die is really random on all the other purposes.  Let's even say that those other 10 purposes don't even always happen every time you move, so there are 0-n extra rolls of the die between each movement roll.  So what does that tell you?  Absolutely nothing.  That's actually what's going on here in AI War.

At any rate, complain about the RNG all you like, but I've looked into it very recently and it's working fine.  The things that I thought were an issue recently boiled down into three problems:

1. The fact that we were reusing the same seed all the time due to a recent bug outside the RNG itself, which we fixed.

2. The fact that the RNG was very unlikely to choose the top-most item out of a list of items, because of our use of FInt (which we fixed).  This has to do with how we were "shifting" the actual UInt random value to a specific range in the integer or floating point space.

3. Some other things we'd been worried about that actually turned out not to be problems once we fixed #1 and #2.  They were false flags, downstream issues based on the above.

As Bob alludes to, essentially there will always be complaints about any RNG, in any game, because statistical clumping is real and happens frequently.  It's often-discussed in game design circles.  A number of game designers actually take steps to make sure that "random" in their cases winds up being "distributed at a certain ratio," even though that's not really random, but just because that's what players expect.

In the case of AI War, there are many cases where we use weighted randoms to set the likelihood of certain ships in the hands of the AI, etc.  But even then we're just affecting the composition of the source list, not the actual RNG itself.  Thus even if something is semantically "1% likely to happen" based on its frequency in the list, it could still be valid to show up a lot more frequently.  Especially because of the multi-factor stuff I mentioned above.
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