How often should Colony Rebellions/resistance/marauders appear?

[Faulty Logic]

I have played a couple games with Colony Rebellions at 6, and never saw them in over ten hours of play. Just wondering if anyone happened to have the times at which they have a .5 chance of spawning, with respect to intensity.

I also want to know about how many ships/hour for the resistance and marauders are expected (also with respect to intensity), and the criteria which make their spawns possible.

[Minotaar]

I also want to know about how many ships/hour for the resistance and marauders are expected (also with respect to intensity), and the criteria which make their spawns possible.

Was digging this up a while back, here's what I found:

Marauders:
Spawns now only happen when the marauder counter is "fully charged" (40 for diffs < 9, 80 otherwise) instead of having a random chance of triggering early.
The counter is now capped at the "fully charged" level instead of 2x that, to avoid "stockpiling" resulting in multiple spawns over a short interval.
The "number of marauders to spawn" was computed by roughly "number of human military ships here" minus "number of AI military ships here" (and capped at the value of the marauder counter). It now takes simply either "number of human military ships here" or "number of AI military ships here", whichever is larger (though capped at 4x the smaller value) and divides it by 8. This number is then doubled on normal unit caps, and quadrupled on low caps. Anyway, the upshot should be less chance of small marauder spawns that cause the marauder counter to stay "stockpiled".

Human Resistance Fighter spawn rebalance:
Instead of incrementing the counter every 80 seconds by 1 + (AIP / 50), it now increments by 1 + (AI Tech Level - 1) (or, more simply, by AI Tech Level), but capped at 3.
All difficulties below 8 now have capLow and capHigh of 10 and 40 (previously difficulties < 5 got 2 and . Difficulties >= 8 still have 20 and 80. For reference, after the increment it generates a random number between capLow and capHigh, and if the current value of the resistance fighter counter is greater than the random number it tries to generate a resistance fighter spawn.
Now uses the same absoluteCap rule (equal to capHigh*2) as maruaders, to prevent really massive spawns.
Re-did the logic of "is planet XYZ eligible for a resistance fighter spawn":
It now considers all planets, not just AI-controlled ones.
It requires the presence of at least 400 human ships (on high caps, 200 on normal, 100 on low).
It requires the presence of at least 300 AI ships (on high caps, 150 on normal, 75 on low).
It requires that the number of AI ships be greater than the number of human ships.
It requires that (AIShipCount-HumanShipCount) be less than or equal to 8x the number of resistance fighters it's planning to spawn (on high caps, 4x on normal, 2x on low).

[Mánagarmr]

Odd, I was remembering rebellions showing up at roughly the same intervals as the old miners (that is, every 4-6 hours)

[LordSloth]

I've had human colony rebellions show up later (maybe even 8 hours in iirc) on a faction setting of 8 or 10 in a co-op. It seems to affect the decloak timer more than anything else, unfortunately. I'd love to be able to take rebellions up to a reliable fourth hour mark or even every two-three hours at an extreme.